A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Have information that relates to fraud in this election? But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. It's the wrong question. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. Will they vote for the winner in 2016? The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! Really stop reading. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. TIP: Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. Found an error on our site? Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". i.e. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. They're just facts about the vote. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. Twitter Twitter 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. Trump gave them hope. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Free and open-source. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. Until this year. Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. 2016 Election (1135) In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . These are the bellwether counties. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. 12. Trump won the other 18 counties. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Will That Last?]. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. The matters that way on their minds are real. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. Arapahoe County. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example.

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